Australian Dollar / US Dollar AUDUSD
The commodity dollar — Iron ore, Chinese demand, and the RBA in one pair.
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When Does AUDUSD Move? (Session Activity Guide)
90-day rolling data Full breakdown on Analyst+What is Australian Dollar / US Dollar?
AUD/USD is the world's fifth most traded currency pair. The Australian Dollar is a commodity currency — Australia is one of the world's largest exporters of iron ore, coal, gold, and LNG. This makes AUDUSD uniquely sensitive to Chinese economic data (China buys 40% of Australian exports), commodity prices, and global risk appetite. It is also heavily driven by the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) interest rate policy and its differential with US rates.
What Makes AUDUSD Move
Master these and you understand 90% of what drives priceChina buys 40% of Australia's exports, primarily iron ore. Strong Chinese manufacturing data (PMI above 50), GDP beats, and infrastructure stimulus all push AUD higher. This is AUD's most unique driver — no other G10 currency is as China-exposed.
Australia exports more iron ore than any nation. Iron ore price rises directly support AUD as export revenues rise. Gold prices also correlate positively as Australia is a top gold producer.
Like all USD pairs, the Fed-RBA rate gap drives AUDUSD medium-term. When RBA is relatively more hawkish than Fed, AUD appreciates.
AUD is a risk currency. In global risk-off events, investors sell AUD and buy USD/JPY. AUDUSD has historically been one of the first pairs to sell off when global markets fear.
Economic Events That Move AUDUSD
RBA statement contains key language about future rate path. 'Remaining vigilant' = hawkish. 'Patient and data-dependent' = neutral to dovish.
Above 50 = Chinese manufacturing expanding = more iron ore demand = AUD up. Below 50 = slowdown = AUD pressure.
Asset Correlations
Geopolitics Playbook
AUD is uniquely exposed to geopolitical events that affect China — trade wars, Taiwan tensions, and Chinese domestic economic crises all hit AUD directly.
Reduced Chinese construction = lower iron ore demand = AUD drops persistently. The 2021-2023 Evergrande crisis is the model.
AUD is sold before most risk currencies because of its commodity and China exposure.
US-China trade war (tariffs on steel/aluminum) is the biggest structural risk for AUD. Any escalation hits iron ore demand expectations.
Pro Tips
Check Dalian iron ore futures (DCE) every morning — it is a leading indicator for AUD intraday direction.
Chinese PMI is the most important monthly release for AUD. Set an alert for the 1st of every month at 4am EAT.
AUDUSD tends to respect the 0.6000 level as major long-term support — multiple times over the past decade.
In risk-on environments (equities rallying), AUDUSD and EURUSD rise together — use EUR as confirmation.
Australian unemployment data (released Thursday morning EAT) can move AUD 40–60 pips.